Posthaste: Worried about your stocks? Here’s CIBC’s top 10 ideas for what could be a wild month

Markets got a boost today after news that U.S. lawmakers are moving closer to a deal ending the longest government shutdown in America’s history — which is good, because last week was bad. 

The Nasdaq, home to the tech stocks that have driven the stampeding bull run this year, fell more than 3 per cent, the worst start to a month since “Liberation Day” in April, when U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed a barrage of tariffs that shocked the world and markets. 

Tech giants in the so-called Magnificent Seven shed 3 per cent after fears flared up that AI-fuelled valuations were getting way ahead of fundamentals.

Investors have been piling into tech stocks, pushing the S&P 500 technology weighting to historic highs, and the
decline in breadth in the market has become a concern, said Sid Mokhtari, chief market technician at CIBC Capital Markets.

In what could be a turbulent November, CIBC offers its 10 best stock ideas. 

Mokhtari said the number of sectors in the S&P 500 with over 60 per cent of their members above medium and long-term averages has dropped to three from six over the past four months. And a higher number of stocks are hitting new 52-week lows compared to highs. 

Still more than 50 per cent of companies in nine out of 11 sectors have positive returns year to date, which suggests investors are in good shape so far, but might shy away from risk as the end of the year draws near, he said.

Seasonal trends could work in investors’ favour. In November over the past 10 years, North American indices have averaged returns of more than 2 per cent and positive hit rates of 80 and higher, he said. 

“Dip buying is the right strategy,” on the TSX. 

Last month, CIBC’s best ideas returned 7.28 per cent, beating the TSX index. Year to date their recommended equal-weight baskets have returned 48 per cent, almost 26 per cent above the index. 

The picks for November are made up of 30 per cent financials, 20 per cent industrials, and 10 per cent each of utilities, information technology, health care and energy. 

The financials include Great-West Lifeco Inc., Manulife Financial Corp. and Toronto-Dominion Bank. Industrials are AtkinsRealis Group Inc, formerly SNC-Lavalin, and Element Fleet Management Corp.  

Quebecor Inc., Chartwell Retirement Residences, Shopify Inc., Capital Power Corp. and NuVista Energy Ltd. are the picks from the remaining sectors.  

CIBC rates all of the stocks outperform, except Manulife, which is neutral. 

Potential returns range from highs of 23 per cent for AtkinsRealis and 20 per cent for NuVista to a low of 2 per cent for Chartwell. 

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Canada’s

job numbers blasted past expectations

Friday, with the economy gaining 67,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down two ticks to 6.9 per cent. Economists had forecast a loss of 5,000 jobs.

True, the job gains were part-time positions, with full-time jobs actually declining, but the private sector drove the increase and offset lower numbers in the public sector and self-employment.

It was enough to persuade economists that the Bank of Canada would hold fire on rate cuts in December and perhaps for longer.

CIBC Capital Markets said the true tests of the strength of the economy’s are yet to come, considering the recent volatility in jobs data. It expects job gains to slow in the months to come but with population growth easing off the unemployment rate should move lower during 2026.

“That would be in-line with the Bank of Canada’s current thinking that interest rates are low enough to support a recovery within the economy, and because of that we continue to forecast no more cuts from here,” said CIBC economist Andrew Grantham.

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At 56 and divorced three years ago, Charlotte is trying to decide when to retire. She would prefer to do it sooner rather than later, but she needs to decide whether to continue paying a $200,000 mortgage into retirement or sell her home and pay out monthly rent that is greater than her currently combined mortgage and property tax payment. FP Answers has several factors for Charlotte to consider to help with her decision.

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column

can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

mortgage rate page

for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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