Canadian exporters are slowly losing confidence in the global environment as

United States President Donald Trump

’s tariff war weighs down expectations.

The country’s exporters and ready-to-export businesses recently scored a 65.7 on Export Development Canada’s

mid-year Trade Confidence Index

, down 3.3 points from the end of 2024 amid a continued decline since 2022. The score is also significantly lower than the historical average of 72.5.

“Canadian exporters are navigating a challenging global economic outlook marked by shifting U.S. market dynamics and ongoing tariff negotiations — all of which are weighing heavily on their confidence,” Stuart Bergman, EDC’s chief economist, said in a release.

“This is one of the lowest TCI readings on record, with scores reaching below this level in only three other instances: the global financial crisis, the

COVID-19 pandemic

and the post-pandemic inflation surge.”

The worst may be still to come since 36 per cent of exporters said they expect a further decrease in orders over the next six months.

Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods have sent shockwaves throughout the economy. On Aug. 1, he upped tariffs on Canadian products to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, though exports covered under the

Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)

are exempt. He has also put 50 per cent on steel and aluminum exports and 25 per cent on the non-U.S. content of imported vehicles.

Though CUSMA exemptions cover about 95 per cent of exports to the U.S.,

according to the Bank of Canada

, nearly two-thirds of Canadian exporters said they expect lower international sales and 40 per cent expect those lower sales to spill over into the local market as well, EDC’s survey said.

Meanwhile, 36 per cent of exporters are struggling with cash flow, 35 per cent are dealing with rising expenses and 33 per cent are having a hard time maintaining profitability.

Last week,

Prime Minister Mark Carney

announced several measures meant to help Canadian businesses withstand the tariff attack, such as pausing Canada’s electric vehicle mandate, improving training packages for workers, extending employment insurance benefits and implementing a $5-billion strategic response fund.

But many exporters are also taking matters into their own hands.

The survey said 26 per cent of exporters are increasing domestic sales to mitigate tariff exposure, while 35 per cent are looking at new markets to avoid U.S. tariffs.

“Exporters are showing interest in diversifying trade, however, they are choosing fewer markets within each region, potentially pointing towards a more focused diversification strategy,” Bergman said. “Market diversification is integral to Canada’s economic resilience and growth. In the long term, diversification can help exporters to reduce their dependence on a single market and strengthen their competitiveness.”

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Teck Resources Ltd. has agreed to be bought by Anglo American PLC in what would create a critical minerals powerhouse.

The new company, to be named Anglo Teck, would create one of the world’s top producers of copper, a key metal for the energy transition.

Teck is dealing with cost overruns and shortfalls at its main copper mine in China.

The deal offers Teck investors an estimated 12 per cent stock premium, which some analysts have called “very light.”

Read more here.

  • Today’s Data: U.S. producer price index for August, U.S. wholesale trade for July
  • Earnings: Chewy Inc., Manchester United Ltd.

  • Teck strikes deal with Anglo American to create $70-billion copper producer with headquarters in Vancouver
  • Why some of Canada’s biggest pensions are slamming the brakes on U.S. real estate investment
  • The CRA needs to get better — now. Here are five ways to make it happen
  • CPPIB bets on Klarna, Netskope IPOs bring gains to top pension fund

For those feeling “way behind” on retirement savings, Canadians should consider a strict investment plan with more aggressive return options to get back on track and avoid having a lower quality of life when it comes time to retire. Those looking to get started should also seek professional advice to make sure they are taking advantage of the best investing strategies.

Read more here. 

Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at

wealth@postmedia.com

with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column

can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus, check out his

mortgage rate page

for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s

YouTube channel

for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at

posthaste@postmedia.com

.

  • Teck shareholder says higher premium might be needed
  • Matthew Lau: We benefit from temporary foreign workers

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