In March, then foreign affairs minister,

Mélanie Joly

, made headlines by describing the early days of the

U.S. trade war

as a “psychodrama,” suggesting the country couldn’t live with the chaos and uncertainty of

new tariffs

being announced “every 30 days.”

With more than 200 days now behind us, it’s hard not to see some drama in the trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada.

President Donald Trump

‘s experience in reality television has been on full display, from his impassioned monologues at MAGA rallies to his Apprentice-like Oval Office meetings. His mastery of raw theatrics rival many of the stage’s greats.

If the trade war with the U.S. is a three-act play, then our best hope for resolution will come in the third act: the

CUSMA review

. Its outcome will determine whether the past months have been a prelude to comedy or economic tragedy.

Act I in “The Trade War” was Canada’s ‘Elbows Up’ election. In the study of drama, this act would be termed “in media res” — where the audience is literally thrown “into the middle of things.”

In this case, the audience was subjected to the shock of seeing the president rapidly and unpredictably set his trade agenda; Prime Minister Trudeau fold his hand; and a sudden leadership contest followed by a snap election (with a surprising result). With all the “elbows up, elbows down” calls, there were moments when it felt a bit like a Broadway musical.

Act II was the “deus ex machina” — a technique used in Ancient Greek theatre in which a god literally descends to the stage via pulley to make complex problems go away. As audience members, we’ve been trained to expect that the build-up of plot and conflict will suddenly evaporate with the introduction of a new character, a speech, a quick handshake agreement.

Instead, the constant promise and delay of an all-caps “DEAL,” which we expected would be reached at the G7 in July (or in August, or September) has felt more like the plotless “theatre of the absurd” of Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot, in which the deity, and resolution, never arrives.

Which brings us to the final act of this play: the impending review of CUSMA, our trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico.

During the first two acts, we were enthralled by the rapid-fire announcements of new “deals” and unsure how we should react. But with all that melodrama, what’s been largely overlooked is that the vast majority of Canadian trade still goes to the U.S. tariff-free, thanks to CUSMA. As serious as it is that steel, aluminum and the auto sector have been red-circled by the U.S., most of our trade still continues unabated.

Here’s the plot twist: as major economies such as Japan, the UK and EU agree to tariffs and quotas that were unthinkable mere months ago, and as American stockpiles of pre-tariff supplies dwindle to nothing, there is no place for higher prices to go but into the marketplace.

That is why inflation in the U.S. first started to tick up in June and why it continues to grow. It’s why many U.S. businesses, in particular smaller and independent ones, say the rising costs from tariffs are now forcing them to layoff staff and hike prices.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce calculates tariffs amounted to a consumer tax of US$1.9 billion on food costs in the months of May and June alone, when America’s domestic supply should have been plentiful.

At the end of the day, the U.S. and Canada are each other’s top customer: bilateral trade between the two nations must — and will — continue.

Canadians have understandably felt victimized, but for far too long we’ve been complacent spectators to our own economy. As we wake up to the fact that we cannot take our trade relationships for granted, we must also commit to being the lead actors in shaping our own economy.

We have the opportunity to ensure a strong future for our country. Diversify our trade? Absolutely. Try to make the most of our shared border with the world’s largest economy? Duh.

In the classic tragedy Richard III, an embattled king sees his grand designs for power and control slipping away from him. Facing disaster, he yells out one of Shakespeare’s most famous lines: “A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!”

As the wild ride of 2025 begins to fade and we look to the potential renegotiation of CUSMA in 2026, time will tell how smart it was for Canada to go slow with the horse-trading that other countries moved on so quickly.

Theatrics aside, elbows where they normally go, Canada’s best interests will be served by focusing squarely on the key pieces of CUSMA — our real path to trade peace with the U.S. If we can’t strike a long-term deal, we’ll be left with ongoing uncertainty and fading investment: destined to repeat the same scene by reviewing CUSMA every year. The cost of that would be tragic.

  • U.S. ambassador to Canada says anti-American rhetoric hurting trade relations
  • U.S. launches CUSMA review process with public consultations

Matthew Holmes is chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.