Prediction markets are ramping up in Canada, but there’s mixed feelings about their arrival and strong concerns about what they should be allowed to do, says a poll by Angus Reid Institute.

About 40 per cent of Canadians oppose prediction markets — which allow wagers to be placed on the outcome of political events, economic data and even the weather — compared with 26 per cent who favour permitting them, according to an online survey of 1,803 adults released on Tuesday. But even those who support the platforms called for strict regulations.

Prediction markets have taken off over the past year and a half and platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are estimated to be worth US$20 billion each. But they have courted plenty of controversy and fire from United States regulators and investors over accusations that people may be benefitting from insider knowledge.

For example, media outlets on Thursday reported that a Google LLC engineer had been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice over the use of the internet giant’s most-searched list to rig bets on Polymarket.

An even darker side is that some wagers are being made on how many people would be killed in conflicts.

Nevertheless, Canada took another baby step in March by announcing that fintech company Wealthsimple Investments Inc. had received regulatory approval to offer “futures and forecast contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends.”

Wealthsimple, which has yet to announce when it will offer a prediction market, wasn’t the first out of the gate in Canada: Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., an automated global electronic broker, launched such a platform in April 2025.

Regulations in Canada prohibit prediction markets from allowing bets to be placed on sports or elections.

While overall feelings about the predictions market operating in Canada are mixed, people threw up strong opposition to allowing some bets to be placed.

For example, 70 per cent opposed allowing bets on war casualties versus 11 per cent in favour, and 68 per cent strongly opposed betting on the death of politicians versus 11 per cent in favour.

Majorities, ranging from 53 per cent to 56 per cent, said wagering on events such as corporate outcomes and elections should also be banned.

People took a more relaxed view of sporting events, with 42 per cent supporting prediction market bets while 34 per cent opposed them.

Prediction markets have also been criticized for being nothing more than gambling sites, with 35 per cent agreeing with that statement, while another 15 per cent said prediction markets combined gambling and useful forecasting tools.

But Canadians are neophytes at using them, with only four per cent placing a bet through them, though that swells to 22 per cent in the case of sports bettors.

Knowledge or awareness of the sector was highest among men aged 35 to 54, while three in 10 young men said they “know a lot” about prediction markets.

The fight over prediction markets is only set to grow.

On Wednesday U.S. President Donald Trump called some state lawmakers “scum” for seeking to put prediction markets under gambling regulations.

Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is an adviser to Polymarket and Kalshi.

— with files from Naimul Karim, Financial Post

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Canadians imported a record amount of goods in the first quarter, driven primarily by surging prices for gold and other metals, causing the current account deficit to widen.

That deficit surged to $7.2 billion from $1 billion a quarter ago. The figure, released Thursday, surpassed the $4.3 billion expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Imports climbed 5.5 per cent to a record $211 billion, led by metals and non-metallic mineral products, which rose by 38.3 per cent. Gold hit an intraday record of more than US$5,500 at the end of January.

Canadians also sold the precious metal, but to a lesser degree, with metals and mineral exports rising 11.2 per cent. Exports overall grew 3.9 per cent to $203.3 billion, also supported by a 16.1 per cent jump in energy products. — Bloomberg

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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