Retail sales

inched up 1.1 per cent to $70.7 billion in January, according to the latest

retail trade report

from Statistics Canada.

These figures were softer than the agency’s advance estimate, “extending the seesaw pattern that’s been in place for a year,” Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a note.

However, the January update and advance estimates for February — also about a one per cent increase — indicate retail sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 could post their strongest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2024, Andrew Grantham, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in a note.

Sales were up in six of nine subsectors and led by a two per cent rebound at motor vehicle and parts dealers, following a 1.6 per cent decline in December. This was due to an increase in sales of 2.5 per cent at new car dealers and 5.6 per cent at other vehicle dealers, while sales of used cars declined three per cent.

Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 0.9 per cent in January.

This uptick was largely attributed by the agency to a three per cent increase in general merchandise sales, which marked a four-month streak of gains. The biggest decline in core retail came from the food and beverage sector, which dipped 0.6 per cent, thanks mainly to lower sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores.

“Momentum in services spending appears intact, based on our internal credit and debit card data, likely supported by higher-income households with greater financial buffers,” Toronto-Dominion Bank’s economist Maria Solovieva said in a note, though she added that the Statistics Canada report was “inherently backward-looking.”

Sales at gas stations and fuel vendors were down 0.4 per cent in January.

Kaushik said there are “mounting headwinds” for consumers given higher

energy prices

amid the Iran war, which will likely show up in retail sales data for the month of March.

“Looking forward, the recent jump in gasoline prices will flatter the headline nominal retail sales figures in the coming months, however, the squeeze to disposable incomes is likely to restrict purchases of other products and subdue overall sales volumes,” Grantham said.

Michael Davenport, senior Canada economist at Oxford Economics Ltd., said his firm expects households to temporarily reduce savings to maintain spending levels.

“The new federal grocery and essentials benefit is also set to hit households’ bank accounts in (the second quarter), which will help offset the hit to real incomes,” he said in a note.

David Rosenberg, founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said the headline retail sales figure likely won’t help the Bank of Canada make decisions around

interest rates

, given the surge in gas prices in March that will likely depress consumer spending.

“More relevant is the well-contained trend in pre-conflict retail prices,” he said in a note. “Alongside the moderate (consumer price index) data, this should give the (Bank of Canada) some flexibility if they want to keep another rate cut as a possibility or simply delay rate hikes.”

The

inflation rate

had slowed in February to 1.8 per cent, according to the latest consumer price index data, from 2.3 per cent in January.

• Email: slouis@postmedia.com

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