Affirm stock price falls as credit losses jump: is it a good buy today?

Affirm stock price continued its recent downward trend after the company published its financial results on Thursday. AFRM moved to a low of $56, down by 40% from its highest level in 2025. It has dropped to its lowest level since June 5 last year.

Affirm stock drops after earnings 

Affirm, a key player in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), published strong results that were much higher than what analysts were expecting, confirming that demand for its services was strong.

These numbers came as recent macro data by the Commerce Department showed that retail sales continued rising despite the ongoing inflation concerns in the country. Another report released in January showed that US consumer confidence rebounded, while holiday sales rose by 3.4%.

Affirm’s report showed that its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) jumped to $13.8 billion in the second quarter of FY’26. Its active customers rose by 23% to over 25.8 million, while the number of transactions per customer rose by 20% to 6.4.

These numbers led to a 30% jump in its revenue, which moved to $1.13 billion, higher than the median estimate of $.1.11 billion. 

Affirm benefited from the rising consumer spending and the fact that its business model is usually friendly to customers as they have a chance to split their bills and pay no interest.  Most importantly, the company has deals with some of the biggest retailers in the United States like Amazon and Walmart, giving it access to millions of customers a year.

The company has continued adding merchants, who are keen on attracting more shoppers. Its merchants jumped by 42% to over 478,000.

Therefore, Affirm stock price retreated because of a slight increase in delinquencies. Its 30+ day delinquencies, excluding Peloton, increased 18 basis points YoY.  This performance led to a higher credit loss than expected.

Affirm’s growth to continue 

Looking forward, there are signs that Affirm’s business will continue doing well in the coming months as demand for BNPL solutions continues rising in the United States.

The average estimate among analysts is that its third-quarter revenue will be $977 million, up by 24.8% YoY. Odds are that the final figure will be higher than that as the company’s guidance is for its revenue to be between $970 million and $1 billion. Affirm often tends to be highly conservative when making its guidance.

The annual revenue for the current fiscal year is expected to come in at $4.07 billion, up by 26% YoY, followed by $5.7 billion. Its EPS is expected to be $3.25 this year followed by $3.7 in the following year. 

Affirm share price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the AFRM stock price has come under pressure in the past few months, moving from a high of $100 in August to a low of $56 today.

The stock is about to form a death cross pattern, which happens when the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross each other.

Affirm has also moved below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $61, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved close to the oversold level of 30.

Therefore, the most likely Affirm stock forecast is where it continues falling, potentially to the 78.6% retracement level at $38.85, and then resumes the uptrend later this year.

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