Donald Trump

doesn’t like

trade deficits

, but in one corner of the U.S. economy he may be helping to create one.

For the first time since the global pandemic locked down the world in 2020, international travellers coming into the United States are forecast to decrease and a boycott by Canadians is being cited as the main reason why.

The

U.S. Travel Association predicts

that travel to the United States will fall to just 85 per cent of 2019 levels this year and travel spending by international visitors will drop by 3.2 per cent, a US$5.7 billion loss from last year.

“Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease, and the volume of visits from countries other than Canada are expected to be flat,” said the report.

“With outbound international travel continuing to grow, the travel trade deficit for 2025 is tracking to reach nearly $70 billion.”

Angered by

President Trump’s tariffs

and his comments about Canada as the 51st state, many Canadians have been boycotting U.S. travel.

Last month 30 per cent fewer crossed the border into the United States by vehicle than the year before — the 10th straight month of declines,

Statistics Canada said Wednesday

. Trips to the U.S. by air are down 24 per cent.

Canadians’ trips to the United States by automobile, October

Travel and tourism

is important to America. Last year the industry contributed US$2.6 trillion to the economy and supported more than 20 million jobs.

According to the International Trade Administration, every 40 visits by foreigners supports one U.S. job.

The U.S. Travel Association expects international travel to rebound in 2026 as America hosts the FIFA World Cup with Canada and Mexico and celebrates its 250th birthday. In 2028, Los Angeles hosts the Summer Olympics.

But it cautions that the U.S. risks further decreasing international visits with potential increases to visa fees, longer wait times for visa approvals and “negative sentiment towards the U.S. in key markets.”

With

Black Friday

just around the corner, retailers along with tourism operators are likely to feel the pain of their absent neighbours.

Traditionally, many Canadians have made the trip to the United States for the annual shopping spree, but if the current trend holds, their numbers will be down this year.

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The Toronto Blue Jays hit Canadian entertainment spending out of the park in October.

According to

Royal Bank of Canada’s consumer spending tracker

, most of the spending strength last month came from entertainment and arts, and almost all of the increase was in Ontario, which hosted four of seven World Series games. The Jays lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the final game of the series.

“The Blue Jays in the World Series provided a notable lift to discretionary spending, particularly in Ontario, underscoring consumer appetite for experiences even amid economic headwinds, said RBC economist Rachel Battaglia.

Along with the Jays, spending in entertainment and arts has been surging as a category ever since provincial rules on online gambling were relaxed, she said.

  • Prime Minister Mark Carney to make an announcement regarding nation-building projects
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  • This TFSA mistake is costing millennial and gen Z Canadians a fortune, TD says
  • Bank of Canada considered waiting longer to cut interest rate, deliberations show
  • New power projects, proposed data centres raising hope for Canada’s natural gas industry

Donald Trump’s trade war and rising unemployment have left Canadians cautious about spending heading into the holiday season, and that has big retailers turning up the volume on bargains. Commerce giants like Amazon.com are rolling out Black Friday deals early, and offering deeper discounts, says analyst Bruce Winder. Learn more about the l

atest retail trends here

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McLister on mortgages

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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